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Ayşe Elif ÖZSOY ÖZBAY, Işıl SANRI KARAPINAR
A STATISTICAL APPROACH IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS OF SEISMIC RISK PRIORITIZATION
 


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Pre-earthquake prioritization activities performed on a wide set of seismic-prone buildings are the crucial stages for seismic risk evaluation. These activities constitute the core part of earthquake mitigation plans and the decision-making process regarding the allocation of financial and human resources by the authorities. Hence, over the past decade, considerable efforts have been devoted to improve practical schemes for the prediction of a seismically vulnerable set of buildings that require immediate intervention. With this motivation, this study investigates the seismic vulnerability classification for two different building typologies possessing potential seismic risk. As a benchmark, a statistical approach was implemented using the rapid seismic assessment scores to acquire the seismic hazard distribution of the surveyed reinforced concrete and masonry buildings. In line with this, the data obtained from the assessment scores of studied buildings was processed by adopting the probability density function to obtain the seismic risk distribution curves. The representative seismic risk curves belonging to the studied building datasets were derived employing the Gaussian distribution. Through the use of the statistical analysis on the assessment score data, the mean and standard deviations were estimated and utilized as a descriptive measure for the prediction of the seismic performance. As a result of the analysis, a preliminary classification was performed regarding the proposed priority levels for the building typologies. Implications drawn from the results of this pilot study can contribute to the efforts supporting the prioritization activities for the decision-makers in the pre-earthquake assessment process.

Keywords: Pre-earthquake assessment, Gaussian distribution, Statistical approach, Reinforced concrete buildings, Masonry buildings